- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:52
Jujube__A (I will not post all night) ID#252286: - My beautiful wife awaits! I am a fortunate man.
Thanks
J* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:47
Jujube__A (Oooops...former message should read....) ID#252286: -
O No, I fell into a bear trap……. Help Help Help
I'm having trouble with my cut & paste. Never could get the hang of that.
Toss me a bear squeeze, woudya'?..... Its cold out tonight...
Thanks
J*
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:32
SamDowns__A () ID#288262: - I guess not. I'll try back later.
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:27
Jujube__A (O) ID#252286: -
O No
I fell into a bull trap……. Help Help Help
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:25
SamDowns__A (Is it safe?) ID#288262: - Can a guy come up for air?
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:06
Jujube__A (O) ID#252286: - No
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 23:02
Jujube__A (O) ID#252286: - O
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 22:23
farfel (One more time...my cut and paste is not working properly...) ID#17077: - Message should read:
DO NOT FALL FOR BEAR SQUEEZE!
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 21:56
farfel (Ooops...former message should read.....) ID#17077: - DO NOT FALL INTO A BEAR TRAP!
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 21:52
farfel (DO NOT FALL INTO BULL TRAP!) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - A Message to the Oldman...
_______________________________________________________________________
...sir, you have provided sharp analysis in the past. I believe your recent intuitive gut feeling to sell into rallies
made compelling, rational sense. Now, solely upon the basis that Puetz is calling for market problems and that
Time Magazine featured a bear on its cover, you are now reversing your analysis.
IMHO, your latest analysis is a combination of second guessing yourself as well as Puetz-bashing. It seems more
emotional than calculating.
You should remember several things: just several months ago, NEWSWEEK featured a BULL on its cover. For
many market analysts, this fact augured the end of the Bull market. Yet, the bull continued on for some time before
halting in late July.
Now, the Time Warner organization, recognizing the contrarian nature of market investment psychology over this
past decade, has rushed out an issue with a Bear upon the cover. The company ( and maybe its Wall Street
associates ) may be hoping for a contrarian populist reaction as has oft been the case throughout the Nineties.
However, do you honestly believe that currently the majority of Americans believe we are in a bear? Based upon
recent polls ( 70% investors are still bulls ) , that is not the case. The average American investor has never been
more complacent. If anything, a Bear on the cover of Time magazine will not result in contrarian populist
sentiment...it will only accelerate the deterioration of mass bullish enthusiasm.
Remember, sir, we are undergoing a mass psychological paradigm shift in this country. Such a shift should would
necessarily change the standard behavior of markets, from a predictable '90's manner of reaction into something
completely different.
My suspicion is that Time Warner's desperate attempt to instigate a contrarian market response is doomed to
failure.
The psychology of the market has shifted and only a handful of professionals would buy a market for any
sustained period of time upon the basis of a newsmagazine cover story...particularly one that is coming so close
upon the heels of another national magazine's BULL cover story.
Finally, I believe your over-the-top dislike for Puetz is coloring your analysis of this rapidly weakening market.
You must remember that Puetz's forecast of an October Crash last Oct., '97 was correct EXCEPT for the intrusion
of special goverment interests into the free markets. Therefore, it is inappropriate to denigrate the entirety of his
market analysis.
This time around, my sense is that government intrusion into the free market is coming too late. IMHO, a snowball
effect of deteriorating global psychology cannot be stemmed by the purchase of a billion dollars of S & P futures
in the morning. Nor do I believe speeding up the money printing presses is sufficient to halt the global loss of faith
in the American government ( thanks to Clinton ) and ergo, the American Dollar.
Accelerating the money presses will only hasten the stagflationary conditions developing around the world.
We have moved into full paradigm shift best exemplified by rising foreign markets occurring
SIMULTANEOUSLY with a falling US Dollar. This phenomenon does not suggest the return to global economic
stability. Rather, it suggests a hasty repatriation of foreign capital from America which augurs very badly for
domestic bond and stock markets here.
So, I think that, at best, you may get a half/one day rally from your TIME magazine effect....but rapidly evolving
bearish populist psychology should spin this bullishness around on a dime.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 15:02
farfel (@ALL...please get the preceding message...) ID#17077: - ...into the OLDMAN's hands.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 15:01
farfel (@OLDMAN...Do Not Fall Into A Bull Trap...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...sir, you have provided sharp analysis in the past. I believe your recent intuitive gut feeling to sell into rallies made compelling, rational sense. Now, solely upon the basis that Puetz is calling for market problems and that Time Magazine featured a bear on its cover, you are now reversing your analysis.
IMHO, your latest analysis is a combination of second guessing yourself as well as Puetz-bashing. It seems more emotional than calculating.
You should remember several things: just several months ago, NEWSWEEK featured a BULL on its cover. For many market analysts, this fact augured the end of the Bull market. Yet, the bull continued on for some time before halting in late July.
Now, the Time Warner organization, recognizing the contrarian nature of market investment psychology over this past decade, has rushed out an issue with a Bear upon the cover. The company ( and maybe its Wall Street associates ) may be hoping for a contrarian populist reaction as has oft been the case throughout the Nineties.
However, do you honestly believe that currently the majority of Americans believe we are in a bear? Based upon recent polls ( 70% investors are still bulls ) , that is not the case. The average American investor has never been more complacent. If anything, a Bear on the cover of Time magazine will not result in contrarian populist sentiment...it will only accelerate the deterioration of mass bullish enthusiasm.
Remember, sir, we are undergoing a mass psychological paradigm shift in this country. Such a shift should would necessarily change the standard behavior of markets, from a predictable '90's manner of reaction into something completely different.
My suspicion is that Time Warner's desperate attempt to instigate a contrarian market response is doomed to failure.
The psychology of the market has shifted and only a handful of professionals would buy a market for any sustained period of time upon the basis of a newsmagazine cover story...particularly one that is coming so close upon the heels of another national magazine's BULL cover story.
Finally, I believe your over-the-top dislike for Puetz is coloring your analysis of this rapidly weakening market. You must remember that Puetz's forecast of an October Crash last Oct., '97 was correct EXCEPT for the intrusion of special goverment interests into the free markets. Therefore, it is inappropriate to denigrate the entirety of his market analysis.
This time around, my sense is that government intrusion into the free market is coming too late. IMHO, a snowball effect of deteriorating global psychology cannot be stemmed by the purchase of a billion dollars of S & P futures in the morning. Nor do I believe speeding up the money printing presses is sufficient to halt the global loss of faith in the American government ( thanks to Clinton ) and ergo, the American Dollar.
Accelerating the money presses will only hasten the stagflationary conditions developing around the world.
We have moved into full paradigm shift best exemplified by rising foreign markets occurring SIMULTANEOUSLY with a falling US Dollar. This phenomenon does not suggest the return to global economic stability. Rather, it suggests a hasty repatriation of foreign capital from America which augurs very badly for domestic bond and stock markets here.
So, I think that, at best, you may get a half/one day rally from your TIME magazine effect....but rapidly evolving bearish populist psychology should spin this bullishness around on a dime.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 14:23
farfel (@PETE...thanks for the advice....) ID#17077: - ...after a lengthy discussion today via phone, I feel much better.
The RJujube problem is now resolved.
So, I can and will ignore him from this point on.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 06:22
Pete (farfel-addition) ID#222231: - A classic bull trap is in the making as you say. For the next several weeks we can expect irrational exuberance in equities and the possibility of breaking to new highs. ( THE DAMAGE DONE BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS TRASURURY BY STRONGER THAN NEEDED DOLLAR POLICY HAS BEEN TOO GREAT ) . This will be short lived for when the threat or huge upside movements in commodities, gold and silver emerge the proverbial sh!t will hit the fan.
BET ON IT!
Thanks - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 05:39
Pete (farfel) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You are falling into his trap. The more you respond to his rhetoric, the more you feed his ( EGOS ) . Nobody on either K1 or K2 believes his claptrap or condones his irrational rantings. Please stop acting paranoid.
The new paradigm is the falling dollar. AG has set in motion and alerted the worlds financial community that a rate cut is around the corner. To not do so at this time would mean a deflationary collapse world wide. He has no choice because he will opt for inflation before a depression.
This bodes well for all commodities, especially gold. It's about time. They were driven to abnormally low levels by a super strong dollar policy. Will this new paradigm prevent a market crash? I don't think so. Too little too late. It may delay or prolong it before the end of the year, but when people start losing confidence in fiat money ( 1st thru deflation, then thru inflation ) a crash is certain to happen. NO SOFT LANDING THIS TIME. IMHO.
GOT GOLD?
Thank you - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 03:13
farfel (There is much Bull jubililation concerning ....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...higher Asian indices tonight. However, do not get suckered into a false Bull trap.
The important thing to note tonight is that the dollar is dropping. Very interesting.
In the past, higher Asian indices usually accompanied a higher dollar and higher US stock market. It was an odd contradiction in logic. Yet, that has been the existent paradigm for some time now.
Now, we are seeing the paradigm shift.
Higher Asian stock markets WITH weakening dollar would suggest that foreign capital flight is in full gear. Ergo, it is quite conceivable that if the situation continues tomorrow night, the US market will awaken to one hell of a foreign capital flight. Will domestic inflows replace foreign outflows? Given our heavily leveraged domestic economy, I would doubt it.
Keep in mind that we are witnessing psychological and paradigm shift in the economy.
It is a mistake to assume the old logic of the Bull Market is still in force.
That is where I think Oldman, etc. are going against their gut intuition ( Sell all rallies! ) that there is something different this time...and they are second guessing themselves into believing in a sustainable Bull bubble market.
When the compelling logic for a bull move this week is that Puetz is calling for a major downturn, then I contend it is anti-logic and purely emotional. The average investor does not know Puetz nor care about his past or current predictions. They will make their decisons upon other more emotional speculations.
Personally, I think Greenspan's recent reality speech is a good hint of things to come. After all, the last time Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech, the market tumbled like never before. I think he is preparing Americans for a huge downslide.
IMHO, of course.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:50
farfel (@BART...final question of the night) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Bart, what really perplexes me is this: on K-1, there are no dearth of posters who believe that America's financial, political, and social systems are thoroughly rotted....that the stock market is about to collapse...that Gold may soar like a rocket at any moment in a manner never before seen in history....
Given these facts, why does RJujube continue to hold me up as the Anti-American Man of the Year? Why am I the special target of his hatred?
Why does he NOT lash out at the plethora of similar-minded posters on the K-1 forum?
It baffles me to witness the intensity of anger this kid has for me. It is unrelenting...as hard as I try to ignore, there he is, on my ass, muckraking and threatening me.
Obviously, one theory holds that he has never forgiven me for the whore comments directed his way some time ago.
Another theory is that he is jealous of me for some reason or another. Did I steal his thunder or undermine his tyranny of K-1?
You are a very smart man...please enlighten me.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:40
farfel (RE: earlier OLDMAN post....GRAMMAR correction...) ID#17077: -
..this past summer, I have come to admire the Oldman's analysis of short-term market moves. However, when his most recent analysis is based solely upon antithetical reaction to Puetz's negative market call, then
I would submit he is providing ad hominem comment, not analysis.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:38
farfel (@JACK...it's late at night and my grammar is losing it...) ID#17077: - ...in previous post, I meant to say...
In order to get American auto sales going again, then one way of cutting the cost of a car would be recission of the laws that compel a catalytic converter from being part of it.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:28
farfel (@JACK...I agree...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...but my point is simply this...if America falls into a major recession and/or depression, then I do not think catalytic converters and fresh air will be priority considerations for legislators. Rather, a hobbled domestic auto industry will become the paramount concern of such legislators. In order to get auto sales going again, then one means of cutting the cost of a car would be recission of the laws that compel catalytic converters from being a part of cars sold in America.
I believe that in such a scenario, the government will throw away most fresh air legislation...especially if the Republicans are in power.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:18
Jack (Something to consider) ID#254288: -
Platinum and Palladium are supported by government's edict, while gold is held low by government's chicanery.
Such chicanery gives confidence to those shorting the metal. - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:14
farfel (RE: Oldman's Call for a Spoos Rally on Tuesday) ID#17077: - ...this past summer, I have come to admire the Oldman's analysis of short-term market moves. However, when his most recent analysis is based solely on the basis of an antithetical reaction to Puetz's negative market call, then I would submit he is providing ad hominem comment, not analysis.
As such, I think the Oldman's original call to sell into any rallies represents his gut, intuitive, rational call...NOT his most recentI hate Puetz call.
Oldman, just my humble opinion.
THanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 01:03
farfel (@BART...one other thing, Bart...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...RJujube is now posting on K-1, claiming to be me. So, not only is he slandering me every single time I post over here on K-2, but he is now pretending to be me on K-1 ( which I am NOT allowed to post on ) and posting preposterous statements for attribution to myself.
Although I believe most K-1 posters realize by now that RJ is a complete lunatic, nevertheless, the point is this...he is confusing people.
RETIRED SOLDIER posted an admonition against me here, believing that comments made on K-1 ( by RJ posing as FARFEL ) were made by me.
Bottom Line is this: unless you deny RJ and any of his multiple handle personalities ( JUJUBE, etc. ) from posting on K-2, then this forum is simply of no value and you ought to shut it down. You cannot allow his insanity to reign free on this forum because it precludes non-emotional, analytic theses to be presented here.
Maybe that is what RJ wants...for me to capitulate to his fascist tactics ( which I will NOT do ) or for you to shut down this forum ( K-2 ) in exasperation, in which case he also succeeds in shutting down my voice on KITCO.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 00:43
farfel (Worthy of a REPOST: The Trouble with PLATINUM & PALLADIUM...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
There is absolutely no populist perception that Plat is an alternate form of currency or that it is any kind of financial
reserve. In fact, speaking with my coin dealer, he tells me that for the past week, demand for gold and silver is far
outstripping demand for plat coinage. Prior to last week's debacle, demand for plat coinage was holding up well (
if not doing better ) against demand for gold/silver.
In the event of a crash, industrial demand for both Plat and Palladium will tumble ( as both auto and computer
sales will dive ) . Moreover, in a post-crash economy, in order to facilitate car sales and get the economy back on
its feet, I would expect numerous governments to rescind catalytic converter laws ( by eliminating them altogether
) . In doing so,
they will effectively reduce the price of the cars sold, thereby enhancing the likelihood of future car sales.
Sell your plat and palladium...buy gold and silver.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 00:41
farfel (@BART...and this is my post that recently set the kid off...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...my negative analysis of the plat and palladium markets ( see below ) .
You see, Bart, the way it works is as follows: posters on K-1 are allowed to throw arrows and darts at the value of gold and silver. However, heaven forbid, if someone has the audacity to paint a negative picture of platinum and palladium on either K-1 or K-2. They will face the immeasurable wrath of RJujube. He will attack them mercilessly as he displays his supreme knowledge of the white metals.
He is your de facto policeman on K-1 and K-2, ensuring that absolutely nothing negative is written on his venerated plat and palladium...and further ensuring that nobody ever regards gold as more than a short term upside trade since he will always assure everybody that it can NEVER offer profit nor long-term protection to any individual
Thanks.
F*
----------------------------------------------
Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:59
farfel ( @TOM...and my definitive views on Plat and Palladium.... ) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...are as follows:
There is absolutely no populist perception that Plat is an alternate form of currency or that it is any kind of financial
reserve. In fact, speaking with my coin dealer, he tells me that for the past week, demand for gold and silver is far
outstripping demand for plat coinage. Prior to last week's debacle, demand for plat coinage was holding up well (
if not doing better ) against demand for gold/silver.
In the event of a crash, industrial demand for both Plat and Palladium will tumble ( as both auto and computer
sales will dive ) . Moreover, in a post-crash economy, in order to facilitate car sales and get the economy back on
its feet, I would expect numerous governments to rescind catalytic converter laws ( by eliminating them altogether
) . In doing so,
they will effectively reduce the price of the cars sold, thereby enhancing the likelihood of future car sales.
Sell your plat and palladium...buy gold and silver.
Thanks.
F*