But -- there is a way around the problem, if the shady powers that be that put him in office decide that WJC is no longer an asset. As they say, those who live by the sword, die by the sword.

Personally, I do not see how anyone would gain by letting the WJC fiasco fester, unless it was to polarize pro- and anti- government groups.

Just wait until some of the audio tapes of Monica describing her experiences with WJC leak out. And -- the subpoenas will not end with the Monicagate report. Apparently all the other stuff KS unearthed is being held in the background, to be used as a threat -- the offenses are all currently only related to Monica and the coverup.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

My guess is that these information leaks will continue with devastating effect until WJC only gets political support from Buddy -- his dog.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

And, if it's not too personal, what quantity of physical do you hold? Maybe you can tell as just the percentage of your assets?

Me...I'm building a $10,000 position and starting 1/3 in physical, any advice for a copperfoot?

1881 - 1955

By Anodea Judith

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was a visionary French Jesuit, paleontologist, biologist, and philosopher, who spent the bulk of his life trying to integrate religious experience with natural science, most specifically Christian theology with theories of evolution. In this endeavor he became absolutely enthralled with the possibilities for humankind, which he saw as heading for an exciting convergence of systems, an Omega point where the coalescence of consciousness will lead us to a new state of peace and planetary unity. Long before ecology was fashionable, he saw this unity he saw as being based intrinsically upon the spirit of the Earth:

The Age of Nations is past. The task before us now, if we would not perish, is to build the Earth.

Teilhard de Chardin passed away a full ten years before James Lovelock ever proposed the Gaia Hypothesis which suggests that the Earth is actually a living being, a collosal biological super-system. Yet Chardin's writings clearly reflect the sense of the Earth as having its own autonomous personality, and being the prime center and director of our future -- a strange attractor, if you will -- that will be the guiding force for the synthesis of humankind.

The phrase 'Sense of the Earth' should be understood to mean the passionate concern for our common destiny which draws the thinking part of life ever further onward. The only truly natural and real human unity is the spirit of the Earth. . . .The sense of Earth is the irresistable pressure which will come at the right moment to unite them ( humankind ) in a common passion.

We have reached a crossroads in human evolution where the only road which leads forward is towards a common passion. . . To continue to place our hopes in a social order achieved by external violence would simply amount to our giving up all hope of carrying the Spirit of the Earth to its limits.

To this end, he suggested that the Earth in its evolutionary unfolding, was growing a new organ of consciousness, called the noosphere. The noosphere is analogous on a planetary level to the evolution of the cerebral cortex in humans. The noosphere is a planetary thinking network -- an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback, and planetary communication. At the time of his writing, computers of any merit were the size of a city block, and the Internet was, if anything, an element of speculative science fiction. Yet this evolution is indeed coming to pass, and with a rapidity, that in Gaia time, is but a mere passage of seconds. In these precious moments, the planet is developing her cerebral cortex, and emerging into self-conscious awakening. We are indeed approaching the Omega point that Teilhard de Chardin was so excited about.

This convergence however, though it was predicted to occur through a global information network, was not a convergence of merely minds or bodies -- but of heart, a point that he made most fervently.

It is not our heads or our bodies which we must bring together, but our hearts. . . . Humanity. . . is building its composite brain beneath our eyes. May it not be that tomorrow, through the logical and biological deepening of the movement drawing it together, it will find its heart, without which the ultimate wholeness of its power of unification can never be achieved?

In his productive lifetime, Teilhard de Chardin wrote many books, which include the following:

LET ME EXPLAIN

THE APPEARANCE OF MAN

THE DIVINE MILIEU

THE FUTURE OF MAN

HOW I BELIEVE

HYMN OF THE UNIVERSE

LETTERS FROM A TRAVELLER

LETTERS TO LEONTINE ZANTA

THE MAKING OF A MIND

MAN'S PLACE IN NATURE

THE PHENOMENON OF MAN

SCIENCE AND CHRIST

THE VISION OF THE PAST

WRITINGS IN TIME OF WAR

BUILDING THE EARTH

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ( 1881-1955 ) was an paleontologist and Catholic priest who also served as a stretcher bearer in WWI. His single, integrated and evolutionary view of reality, together with his deep faith, have made him a giant in the eyes of PROVENZANO & SONS. He is the major influence and inspiration for our work.

This portrait of Teilhard was painted by Caroline Cowell ( 1993 ) of the British Teilhard Association, photographed by John Anderson, and scanned by Dan Provenzano.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0156400049/onedegreebeyondA/002-0325745-1828478

There are many associations dedicated to exploring and spreading the ideas of Teilhard de Chardin. Addresses of three important ones are listed below. Please join PRO & SONS in encouraging them to get on the Internet.

On line now is the Teilhard de Chardin Study Group ( 11/12/96 )

The American Teilhard Association

c/o Iona Spirituality Institute

Iona College

715 North Avenue

New Rochelle, New York 10801

The British Teilhard Association

Plas Maelog

Beaumaris

Ynys Mon LL58 8BH

United Kingdom

The French Teilhard Association

38, rue Geoffroy

Saint-Hilaire

75005 Paris

For anyone interested in a lexicon covering all of Teilhard's works, with short explanations, quotes and references, please write for information about the Pierre Teilhard de Chardin --- Lexicon, by Sion Cowell. Mr. Cowell is the former president of th e European Teilhard de Chardin Centre and current Chairman of the British Teilhard Association. He can be reached at the above address.

By the way, Teilhard would have loved the Internet. In fact, Teilhard saw the Net coming more than a half century before it arrived. -anonymous

The term noogenesis was coined by the Christian mystic, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin. It means the growth or development of consciousness--the coming into being of the noosphere. Noosphere is defined as the sphere or stage of evolutionary development characterized by ( the emergence or dominance of ) consciousness, the mind, and interpersonal relationships. http://www.aloha.com/~yen/chardin.html http://ink.yahoo.com/bin/query?p=Teilhard+de+Chardin&z=1&hc=0&hs=0

The next to last count is the one that I am very fearful of! And the count of the sharp 1300 point decline was the wave -1- of the 3rd, and we are in, an A-B-C of wave -2-. This means that both scenarios are very dire indeed. IMVVVHO, we are at one of these counts, or the other. Its begining to look like the worst one, that being the -1- of the 3rd is done, and we are in wave -2- of the 3rd now. The reason I feel this way is if this were the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd, the corrective wave would have unfolded very quickly and we would not really have this kind of time between wave 2 and 3 of the 3rd. It seems like the whole up down and back up in late August was all the 2nd wave correction. Not an a-b-c, then a 1 and 2 with the 1300 point decline being the 3rd through the 5th. I didn't think this to be the case last week and I still don't!

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! If we start down very hard here, the odds are very high that the crash wave is about to unfold. This, if it is, will unfold in 5 Waves. If, and I do mean If this happens it will likely drop in point terms 1.618, or 2 or even 3.618 times the 1300 point decline. Do the math.

Most are definetly NOT expecting this to happen right now, which is precisley why it has a good possibility of happening! The sentiment on this last low and the comments from the ( You should be lucky you have us ) media are OUTRAGEOUS!!! They have been chastising people for even having the time to listen to the so called gloom and doom forcasters. No matter what they or anyone else has to say, it's not going to change the realities of what is happening out there in the Global marketplace. These are very real problems that are not going to just dissapear by buying the dips! Please be Very Very Careful!!!!!!

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=60m&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu

If we are in a financial crisis of somekind where derivatives trades are being forcefully unwound by frightened banks, and AG is on the other side trying to hold things together, it would not be surprising that the numbers are screwy.

I think we will need to wait for whatever turmoil this is to pass, before we can figure out what went down or up. Who needs y2k? We are having problems right now without it.

Donald: You could be right that alot of derivatives holders all got cold feet at the same time, thinking about what Kenneth Starr's report is about to do to President Clinton. We may be seeing the demise of the US dollar, and the final trigger for the US market bear. Hopefully not worse than this.

Interesting times. Hard to know which way to head when the waves are coming from all directions. I for one do not want to broach.

The next to last count is the one that I am very fearful of! And the count of the sharp 1300 point decline was the wave -1- of the 3rd, and we are in, an A-B-C of wave -2-. This means that both scenarios are very dire indeed. IMVVVHO, we are at one of these counts, or the other. Its begining to look like the worst one, that being the -1- of the 3rd is done, and we are in wave -2- of the 3rd now. The reason I feel this way is if this were the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd, the corrective wave would have unfolded very quickly and we would not really have this kind of time between wave 2 and 3 of the 3rd. It seems like the whole up down and back up in late August was all the 2nd wave correction. Not an a-b-c, then a 1 and 2 with the 1300 point decline being the 3rd through the 5th. I didn't think this to be the case last week and I still don't!

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! If we start down very hard here, the odds are very high that the crash wave is about to unfold. This, if it is, will unfold in 5 Waves. If, and I do mean If this happens it will likely drop in point terms 1.618, or 2 or even 3.618 times the 1300 point decline. Do the math.

Most are definetly NOT expecting this to happen right now, which is precisley why it has a good possibility of happening! The sentiment on this last low and the comments from the ( You should be lucky you have us ) media are OUTRAGEOUS!!! They have been chastising people for even having the time to listen to the so called gloom and doom forcasters. No matter what they or anyone else has to say, it's not going to change the realities of what is happening out there in the Global marketplace. These are very real problems that are not going to just dissapear by buying the dips! Please be Very Very Careful!!!!!!

In the last issue of The Privateer, one of my sub-heads was Floating Currencies - An Obituary. It dealt, like the rest of that section, with the deadly danger to fiat currencies posed by derivative default through the inability of counterparties to pay.

Remember also that it was the persistent ( and equally persistently denied ) rumours that Japan's Fuji Bank had lost its shirt on derivative contracts which led to the Japanese interest rate lowering and the swan dive in the Yen today.

The pressure is mounting.

Any idea how bad things are in South America? Are they about to collapse in a manner similar to Indonesia, or more like Malaysia. I remember individuals like Rudi Dornbusch saying that certain South American countries were models of modern fiat currency management, and that the situation we had in SEAsia would not happen. Well -- time has a tendency to unveil the truth in such matters, doesn't it?

I think what we are seeing is the sequential destruction of our fiat/debt currency system - just by itself -- thought the ElNino events sweeping the world do seem to have preceeded the economic/financial events -- in the same sequence. How odd.

Curiouser and Curiouser.

What I find fascinating is that the Author ( now deceased ) , also said that only about 5% of the Alien technology actually found its way into the hands of human researchers who could figure out how to back engineer the devices. The author then proceeded to say that these devices are stored somewhere for safekeeping, but he has no idea where. I need to get a copy of this book and see if those other devices were described.

Too bad one cannot really decide if any of this is true -- but then, what if 5% of it is true? Same goes for Project Blue book. All you need is one firm 'UFO' sighting by a single reliable witness.

I haven't been the same since the idea of particles moving forward in reverse time. *grin*.

To this day, I cannot remember the name of the textbook, and whether this was a misprint. Perhaps it was not. Regardless of the truth of this matter, we do not function like the 'flip flops' of a computer, but rather by the cumulative processes of 'fuzzy logic' where information approaches each neuron from many sources -- and that neuron fires when the collective input reaches a certain threshold. This alone raises some serious questions about what causality really is, if a threshold must be reached before 'causality' occurs -- and we know something happened. This level of awareness, and the precise definition of causality is undoubtedly different for different people.

To answer your specific question in more detail, we know that much of the brain processes information in some sort of massively parallel fashion, unlike our current computers. Removal of some parts of the brain seem to have little discrete harmful effects, as if each neuron had a portion of all of the necessary imformation that makes us what we are. Like a hologram.

Now, of course, much of our brain is hardwired -- the brainstem, the Cranial nerves and the junctions linked to them -- the auditory, visual, and motor centers. I am talking about the cerebral cortex not involved in specific specialized functions.

Curiouser and Curiouser.

I think it is a given that the more we understand, the less we will know.

Humbling, isn't it? I still get the shivers when I think about nearly 1/4 of the stars in the Galaxy have planets. When you go through the numbers, you conclude that is almost a certainty that there is intelligent life in the Universe, even if it not really evident on Earth. There must be civilizations far in advance of ours that would consider our discussions today trivial. But -- even they may not be the ones with the ultimate answers to the secrets of the Universe. This mystery probably extends nearly without limit.

Frightening thought -- that we are being manipulated in a manner similar to how we humans manipulate the markets.

That would be a logical extension of cycles analysis/Chaos theory, wouldn't it? Why just focus only on the markets when you can control all human behavior? To a certain extent, anyway.

Lets just hope that the supreme being ( GOD ) is behind it all, and the manipulators are being manipulated as well. How would they know?

They troubled me very much when I saw them last night but I convinced myself that Chaos theory made them impossible and that obviously they were able to predict short-term trends with some accuracy, and simply readjusted automatically the long-term trend.

But the Precipice is next and it looks like the charts predicted it. But how could the chart predict Japanese policy changes and the Starr report. Those are exactlly the kinds of variables that make these charts impossible.

Why not a great leader during peacetime so that we do not need to fight the next war? Doesn't work that way, does it? Russia needs a great leader right now -- where is he/she?

I am relieved that at least some of our basic American values have survived over the years, or we would not be considering impeachment at all. I was beginning to wonder whether K Starr would come up with anything. Sort of like getting Al Capone on income tax evasion when nothing else would stick.

I am not pleased to have America go through this embarrassing and painful time, but it is necessary, and we did ( with our own naivete ) bring it upon ourselves. Too bad a few unscrupulous leaders aided and abetted him in his meteoric rise from what must have been a very disfunctional origin in Arkansas.

Would be interesting to hear what A Lincoln or G Washington would have said, if either of them could have posted today on this site. Even RM Nixon would have been appalled, IMHO.

History in the making.

And who wants this report more? The Democrats or the Republicans?

http:

//search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980909/V000442-090998-idx.html

I think our current president got in as the dark horse because he basically said that he would do what his powerful supporters wanted. My guess is that this is the baseline by which most presidents get to be where they are. And some never grow out of this ground state role.

Easy Questions:

1 ) Will K Starr give his report to Congress in a few days ( or a week ) ? Or will he wait till next year since the Republicans are unwilling to go forward with impeachment proceedings till next year?

2 ) Will AG actually lower rates?

3 ) Will the South American markets continue to fall?

Answers:

1 ) K Starr will probably give his report to Congress very soon, and some of it will leak out, even if Congress does nothing.

2 ) Maybe, but not till the markets drop some more. He does not want to end up stimulating the markets in his attempt to bring down the US dollar.

3 ) Yes -- the basic process has begun, and there is no indication that the 'powers that be' will do any better than they did in SEAsia.

Hard Questions:

1 ) Will Japan move away from the brink, saving the world from financial oblivion?

2 ) Will the US markets crash outright?

3 ) Will Russia fall into revolution, and move toward a totalitarian form of government?

Answers:

1 ) My biggest concern is whether Japan is in control of their own affairs, or whether the Yakuza are under control. If Japan implodes, things will come to a head, and the US markets might very well crash. But the Japanese have a historical tendency of not reponding to a crisis until the end is near, and then they do the right thing. Their solution may not be easily discernable to our 'Western' minds.

2 ) US markets -- probably no crash at least till y2k. We are in the throes of an information revolution every bit as traumatic as the industrial revolution. We forget about the good still coming our way, acting as a cushion for our markets. We will eventually met our own debt/financial crisis, probably after the rest of the world is on their way to recovery.

3 ) Russia will continue to muddle on for a while. Humans are notorious for doing nothing as problems get worse, even when you expect that they would react -- the old 'slow cook the frog' problem. Eventually, hjowever, they will have enough of this turmoil, and demand a totalitarian government, unfortunately.

All we need to do is wait and watch, and plan appropriately. Easier to say than to do.

What wild times we live in!

The information revolution -- the worldwide fiat currency debt crises -- the awakening.

I've been eagerly awaiting your next post. Your last post indicated on Thursday ( 14:25 ) indicated that gold would again be testing its downtrend lines which is exaclty what is happening these past two days. I hope your last comments about a gold rally hopefully occuring shortly there after become reality.

I recall one of your previous posts back in March or April when gold was testing the $315 mark that this was only an interim rally and that gold would continue on its downtrend once again past the $300 barrier. If I recall, your insights were opposed by some ( which is why I think this site is so great- otherwise we could all get tunnel vission ) Your call was right and I have since become a loyal follower of yours although I recognize that not everyone is infallible.

I have enjoyed the Kitcol discussion group very much over the past year from stricly an observation point of view. I believe we have many talents here, that when combined, make this one of the best places to be . I would certainly hate to see us lose a few of you because your differences of opinion have struck a nerve. Remember, your presence here is what makes this place such a valuable and enjoyable place to visit. ( I hope soon that the gold bull is on so that these tensions are eased ) .

Regards

Rolly

http://www.thewinds.org

I know all about the barter thing and how gold is the only true money and all that, but realistically, people ( in USA now ) deal in $$$, not gold.

Maybe for Y2k, you should stash a big wad of $20's, also.

Long hours for me these summer days. Many chores on an isolated 'bargain' vacation property that is beautiful, but not quite a bargain. Water and electricity and roof now work. No phone. Now -- I would be alot happier if that 17' Bayliner ( 1/10 new cost ) did not leak. Have to keep it on the trailer, or keep running it. Was a bit difficult getting the trailer into the lake. Too steep for vehicle to do this. Haven't got around to putting in one of those float activated bilge pumps, and still in idea phase for electric winch to pull it and trailer out of water. Can't afford a new floating dock, so must handle 10 foot rises and falls of water level with the trailer. No water skiing this summer for the kids, though until boat is easier to use. Lost 10 pounds and am a lot more fit, though. Good distraction, and enough space for future retirement.

Despite what you might think, I do appreciate your comments, as they do give sorely needed perspective. Belief in the intrinsic value of gold is not enough if you wish in invest -- you need to be equally facile in knowing when to buy and sell. Best not to learn all of your lessons the hard way in the markets.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/nws5.htm

We should all thank Bart Kitner as the benevolent ( and generous ) owner of our virtual space. He makes all of this possible. Thanks, again, Bart Kitner.

Bart -- please do not hesitate to make any suggestions as to how we can make it even better! I guess my biggest concern is our relative inability to attract a more international population of regulars. But at least we are able to keep the interest of regulars like Jin, who are a real asset to this site. And, we do have ( in addition to native Canadians ) , Australians, New Zealanders, Dutch, South Africans, Arabs ( occasionally ) , French ( occasionally ) and those rowdy Americans.

Whether the actually accomplish anything is another matter, but you cannot resolve an issue that you do not acknowledge. What is happening is a good sign, and may be an indication that Japan is bottoming.

What is really interesting is that the Japanese are now reporting derivatives positions on Japanese banks. When do you recall American banks acknowledging this, except after the loss is so big that it cannot be hidden? Even AG ( who is normally quite rational and conservative ) is reluctant to disclose American bank derivative positions. This is probably because he does not want the confidentiality of CB maneuvering with gold derivatives to see the light of day.

I think the new Japanese honesty in reporting financial affairs will be a big plus for them in the years to come. We should learn from this before we find ourselves like ostriches with our heads in the sand a few years from now.

If AG is really smart, he is at least working with the BIS to require that all banks under US control report derivatives positions, even if they are not for public consumption. I hope he knows that this kind of information should be public knowledge. If it is not, we will all regret it later when the dirty laundry comes to light. More Barings and Sumitomo surprises to come, I think.

Japanese Bank Crisis Said to Be Worsening Official Warns of Danger of Deflation By Sandra SugawaraWashington Post Foreign Service

Wednesday, September 9, 1998; Page C10

TOKYO, Sept. 8—Japanese bank experts warned today that the nation's financial crisis is deepening, despite government promises to revive the economy and international pleas for bolder action.

Separately, a Japanese economic official warned that the nation is in danger of a deflationary spiral -- a situation, like that during the Great Depression, in which falling demand causes prices to drop so much that businesses cut back production and workers lose their jobs, pushing demand and prices down further.

These dire warnings come just days after Clinton administration officials again urged the Japanese government to act more aggressively to stimulate the world's second-largest economy, to help stabilize world financial markets.

The banking system is quickly worsening, said Naoko Nemoto, a Tokyo-based banking analyst with the rating agency Standard & Poor's Corp.

Japanese banks are burdened with hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of loans that are not being repaid, and thus they are unable to make new loans, stifling economic activity. As the economy weakens, more companies have trouble repaying their loans, making matters worse.

Bad loans are increasing because of the domestic economy, said Yushiro Ikuyo, banking analyst with Commerz Securities.

Taichi Sakaiya, head of Japan's Economic Planning Agency, today highlighted the serious deterioration of Japan's economy. According to Reuters, he said that although Japan's economy is not in a deflationary spiral, it is at the entrance of one.

Sakaiya said Japan must be vigilant so that we will not be sucked into a deflationary spiral.

We must not make a mistake, he said. We are in a dangerous situation.

Sakaiya said he expected the economy to revive once the government's spending and tax cut plans are enacted. But financial experts fear that the banking system could collapse by then, unless the government forces the disclosure and disposal of troubled loans, injects hundreds of billions of dollars in public funds into banks that are weak but viable, and closes insolvent banks.

Analysts said continuing efforts by the governing Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) to prop up weak banks, the soft landing approach, may help avoid panic but will also prolong the problem. That's because it will not result in a banking system that can generate its own profits, meaning more bailouts probably would be needed in the future.

Japan's 19 major banks, as a sector, had more liabilities than assets as of Aug. 28, according to Yukiko Ohara, a banking analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. In the latest edition of Economist, a leading Japanese weekly business magazine, she estimated the net capital of the largest 19 banks would be a negative $7.6 billion if banks were required to write off significant portions of their bad loans.

The amount of bad loans has expanded like a snowball sliding down a slope, said Seiroku Kajiyama, a veteran LDP politician and banking reform advocate who ran unsuccessfully against Keizo Obuchi this summer for the post of prime minister.

In an article for the October edition of the influential Bungei Shunju magazine, Kajiyama wrote that the $229 billion approved by the government last winter was sufficient then to deal with the banking problem. But since the government has not thoroughly dealt with the bad-loan problem, Japan is now at a critical stage, where even $382 billion might not be enough, he said, according to Reuters.

Kajiyama criticized the LDP for preparing to inject possibly billions of dollars into the financially ailing Long Term Credit Bank of Japan without fully explaining to the public whether this will be sufficient to solve its bad-debt problems.

The LDP's soft-landing approach has led it to try to force Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. to take over Long Term Credit Bank. Sumitomo Trust so far has balked at the plan, because the government wants it to continue to lend to many of the weaker bank's shaky customers. The LDP hopes to persuade Sumitomo Trust by pouring massive amounts of public funds into Long Term Credit Bank.

The opposition parties have blocked this plan until now, saying they wouldn't agree to a bailout until the government disclosed Long Term Credit Bank's bad loans levels, something the government has refused to do -- prompting speculation that the bank is insolvent.

The opposition has said the banking industry must be consolidated and a few of the weakest banks should be allowed to fail. But the Kyodo news service reported this evening that the opposition parties may be backing down on their disclosure demands.

One concern for policymakers is that bank failures can wipe out a hefty portion of the assets of other corporations. That's because under Japan's traditional business structure, Japanese corporations were expected to buy the stocks of their main banks. About 25 percent of all Japanese bank shares are held by non-financial corporations in Japan, according to Craig Chudler, a Tokyo-based strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.

© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

Again, I would like to express my appreciation for your highly reasoned posts on gold bullion. It is posters like you that are essential for balance on Kitco, because it is so easy for Goldbugs to get wrapped up in their favorite topic at the first bullish twitch, only to get creamed a few days later. I should know. Not all my lessons were from erudite posters such as yourself -- I had to get much of my experience from the markets.

This mornings action on gold bullion clearly shows that caution with gold investments is still necessary. AG etal still have alot of gold bullion to play with, if they think the World's financial system is threatened. We must be patient, and wait for this period to end.

I think gold will not rise unless:

1 ) the US dollar is significantly devalued, or

2 ) the US markets drop alot more, or

3 ) the turmoil in Russia panics European investors, or

4 ) there is serious talk about impeachment of WJC.

If there is another financial crisis in Europe like the one in 1992-1993, gold and the US dollar will go up together. Personally, I do not wish for any events that would lead to a further rise in the value of the US dollar, because of that would mean to financial systems all over the world.

Again, I would like to express my appreciation for your highly reasoned posts on gold bullion. It is posters like you that are essential for balance on Kitco, because it is so easy for Goldbugs to get wrapped up in their favorite topic at the first bullish twitch, only to get creamed a few days later. I should know. Not all my lessons were from erudite posters such as yourself -- I had to get much of my experience from the markets.

This mornings action on gold bullion clearly shows that caution with gold investments is still necessary. AG etal still have alot of gold bullion to play with, if they think the World's financial system is threatened. We must be patient, and wait for this period to end.

I think gold will not rise unless:

1 ) the US dollar is significantly devalued, or

2 ) the US markets drop alot more, or

3 ) the turmoil in Russia panics European investors, or

4 ) there is serious talk about impeachment of WJC.

If there is another financial crisis in Europe like the one in 1992-1993, gold and the US dollar will go up together. Personally, I do not wish for any events that would lead to a further rise in the value of the US dollar, because of that would mean to financial systems all over the world.

Note that Asia was mostly down today, as is Europe as I write this. The only European market that is up big time ( 8% plus ) is the Russian market. That's not a good bedfellow for the Dow, S&P et al is it?

Somebody posted on Kitco earlier that I have not said that it's time to buy Gold stocks. Actually, I haven't said anything about Gold stocks here or on my website. But there's one thing I know. The best Gold stock upmoves are signalled by a confirmed technical bottom on Gold - a la 1982, 1986, 1993. So far, we haven't got that yet this time.